Latest Chinese Virus stats since 14/08 - 7 days ago.

Hi,

These are the latest C Virus stats since our last advice 7 days ago. Can't vouch for the accuracy. Is a guide only.  Old figures in brackets  - 

MUNDO - world

Total cases 22,893,027 (21,168,111) - up 1,724,916 or 8.2%

Deaths 797,690 - 3.5% (759,329 - 3.6%) - up 38,361 or 4.8%

Recovered 15,539,457 - 67.9% (13,984,843 - 66.1%) - up 1,554,614 or 11.1%

Therefore active cases 6,555,880 - 28.6% (6,425,939 - 30.3%) - up 129,941 or 2.0%. Of the total population of 7,806,476,611 (7,804,918,919), the percentage of active cases is 0.084% (0.082%) of the total population. 

COLOMBIA

Total cases 513,719 (433,805) - up 79,914 or 18.4%

Deaths 16,183 - 3.2% (14,145 - 3.3%) - up 2,038 or 14.4%

Recovered 339,124 - 66.0% (250,494 - 57.7%) - up 88,630 or 35.4%

Therefore active cases 158,412 - 30.8% (169,166 - 39.0%) - down 10,754 or 6.4%. Of the total population of 50,956,995 (50,946,629) the percentage of active cases is 0.311% (0.332%) of the total population.

NUEVA ZELANDA - New Zealand

Total cases 1,665 (1,602) - up 63 or 3.9%

Deaths 22 - 1.3% (22 - 1.4%)  - no change

Recovered 1,538 - 92.4% (1,531 - 95.6%) - up 7 or 0.5%

Therefore active cases 105 - 6.3% (49 - 3.0%) - up 56 or 114.3%. Of the total population of (5,002,100) the percentage of active cases is 0.002% (0.001%) of the total population.

 AUSTRALIA

Total cases 24,407 (23,035) - up 1,372 or 6.0%

Deaths 472 - 1.9% (379 - 1.7%) - up 93 or 24.5%

Recovered 18,460 - 75.6% (13,634 - 59.2%) - up 4,826 or 35.4%

Therefore active cases 5,475 - 22.4% (9,022 - 39.2%) - down 3,547 or 39.3%.  Of the total population of 25,540,177 (25,536,945) the percentage of active cases is 0.02% (0.04%) of the total population.

ESTADOS UNIDOS - United States

Total cases 5,747,544 (5,429,115) up 318,429 or 5.9%

Deaths 177,476 - 3.1% (170,761 - 3.2%) - up 6,715 or 3.9%

Recovered 3,096,317 - 53.9% (2,844,525 - 52.4%) - up 251,792 or 8.9%

Therefore active cases 2,473,771 - 43.0% (2,413,829 - 44.6%) - up 59,942 or 2.5%. Of the total population of 331,272,237 (331,235,184) the percentage of active cases is 0.747% (0.729%) of the total population. 

General comments:

1) No results from the UK because they are not publishing deaths or recovered cases stats.

2) Total population figures - world based on an increase of 81 million per week. Other countries estimates only. Some have increased since last week - others haven't changed. So best estimates only.

In view of developing events in China, we might need to revise our comments re the treatment of  China in the light of their commercial behaviour. Much of this has been reprehensible, to say the least, with the deliberate and malign release of the Chinese Virus upon an unsuspecting world, and espionage involving theft of intellectual property over many years. We do not suggest that reparations should not continue to be sought, or Chinese assets seized for these horrible crimes. There is a law firm in Florida, USA which is suing the Chinese government for 6.5 trillion USD. If they win the case and China still doesn't pay, the way is then open for seizure of Chinese assets in the US.

However, right now the whole of the Yangtze River valley is experiencing its 5th. major flood in the last 2 months. This has resulted in such a scale of flooding over the last few weeks that it has seen the destruction of their total grain crop, much of their rice crop and no doubt at least some of their manufacturing capability. In typical Communist Party style, President Xi has instructed the governors of the flood affected provinces to maintain their food production at 2019 levels - failing which they will be dismissed, or worse!! Rice futures are already higher than normal.

The 3 Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River (2.5 kilometres long across the river) is under enormous pressure - very close to its designed safe limit - and at the moment the inflow into the reservoir (75,000 m3 per second) is well above the outflow (48,600 m3 per second) as they try and attempt to minimise the damage downstream. The amount of outflow from the dam is at its largest since it was constructed. The water depth on the upstream side of the dam is approaching 166 metres. But this cannot continue. The dam's apparent limit is 175 metres and the reservoir behind the dam is 410 miles long. God knows what that means in terms of actual physical pressure on the dam wall. And the dam is built in a well-known earthquake zone. There are also persistent reports that the construction of the dam was badly affected by rampant corruption, substandard materials and that the whole structure is not properly bedded into the river bed. It just sits on the bottom of the river on loose rubble.  

If the dam failed (and it has distorted), the resultant massive damage and loss of life could well mean the end of the CCP. 400 million Chinese live downstream from the 3 Gorges Dam.  At some point very soon, to try and save the dam, they will have to increase the outflow again and you don't need to be a rocket scientist to realise the further damage that this will cause downstream. Many cities up and downstream right now are experiencing water levels 6-9 feet above normal. 

So, China's import demand for food should substantially escalate. NZ, Australia, Canada, the US and others could well experience demand well above any current or recent expectations, particularly having regard to China's very recent threatening behaviour re trade agreements. The trade sanctions that they slapped on Australia and the very public warnings issued to NZ will fade into the background as they grapple with the enormous problem of feeding their people.

In addition there are reports that Xi Xingping may be facing a muted (so far) revolt from his military and others in the Politburo who have been growing very disquieted at his military adventurism and generally belligerent behaviour more or less all over the world. If the 3 Gorges Dam fails, it seems likely that it would be the catalyst for the end of Xi's rule, and it could also spell the end of the CCP, if the Chinese people finally revolt. It will depend on whether the Army would support them, but that seems more than a possibility in such circumstances.

All a bit speculative, but there is no doubt that the 3 Gorges Dam is at great risk and could well fail, and of course the crop destruction as above is a fact right now.  

We hope that for the sake of the 400 million people living downstream that does not happen, because it would cause a devastating loss of life and property and would also affect the city of Shanghai. 

The crop failures involve mainly rice and corn and already US exports of corn to China are at record levels. As regards NZ, not sure whether these crop failures would have much impact because dairy is largely imported anyway. But the situation may impinge on their ability to pay for what may be regarded as a luxury food as their economy was already on a slippery slope before there was any news of the C Virus or the floods had started. Dairy and Kiwifruit would not be a priority when confronting national starvation, so NZ's exports could suffer, but for different reasons than China becoming belligerent and punitive over the FTA. Who really knows, but the outlook for NZ's world trade in the short term is not good and urgently needs alternatives, some of which are already either starting to happen (SEAsia), or on the horizon (UK and possibly India).

However, it now appears, and this has been kept under wraps in NZ, that NZ signed the Belt and Road Initiative with Communist China on August 11th. If this is in fact true, and we believe it to be, NZ frankly needs its head examined. NZ is a member of the Five Eyes intelligence network and the other 4 members - the USA, Australia, Canada and the UK - will freeze NZ out of any intelligence sharing and cooperation generally. Could also well impact on NZ's ability to secure a UK trade deal when it will need every friend in the world that it can get and keep. China's economy is on the rocks and who knows how it might ultimately react. Depends on many things - whether the 3 Gorges Dam survives, whether Xi Xingping and/or the CCP survives, how serious is the developing food shortage in China, and the level of desperation (now or never attitude) that may exist or come to exist in the CCP.  

Apart from that, there have recently been very encouraging reports that Colombian officials in Washington have been holding talks with the US as part of the US de-coupling from China. In the last few days a US delegation has arrived in Colombia to discuss the establishment of manufacturing industries in Colombia as they are withdrawn from China. There are already existing pharmaceutical, automotive manufacturing and textile industries here and there are many others that could be started. Colombia geographically is right on the doorstep of North America with 3 ports on the Caribbean coast which are as close to the southern US as Auckland is to Sydney. So, exciting times and a great opportunity for Colombia. Better go and buy that cheap electric drill now while you still can! We've read reports that at Bunnings in Australia there are already shortages of certain power tools.

On that note we'll love you and leave you and hope that everyone is well and coping with the C Virus frustrations.

Jim and Jean

Medellin

Colombia

www.tiaretaporo3.blogspot.com