Sunday 30 August 2020

Latest Chinese Virus stats since 14/08 - 14 days ago

Hi,
These are the latest C Virus stats since our last advice 7 days ago. The source is www.worldometres.com but the numbers are only as good as the numbers advised by various governments. So, therefore a big word of caution. Comparative figures relate to 14/08/20 (2 weeks ago).

MUNDO - world
Total cases 24,789,603 (21,168,111) - up 3,621,492 or 17.1%
Deaths 838,468 - 3.4% (759,329 - 3.6%) - up 79,139 or 10.4%
Recovered 17,201,592 - 69.4% (13,984,843 - 66.1% ) - up 3,216,749 or 23.0%
Therefore active cases 6,749,543 - 27.2% (6,425,939 - 30.3%) - up 323,604 or 5.0%
Of the total population of 7,887,476,611 (7,804,918,919) the percentage of active cases is 0.086% (0.082%) of the total world population.

COLOMBIA
Total cases 581,965 (433,805) - up 148,160 or 34.2%
Deaths 18,469 - 3.2% (14,145 - 3.3%) - up 4,324 or 30.6%
Recovered 417,703 - 71.8% (250,494 - 57.7%) - up 167,209 or 66.8%
Therefore active cases 145,793 - 25.1% (169,166 - 39.0%) - down 23,373 or 13.8%. Of the total population of 50.967,362 (50,946,629) the percentage of active cases is 0.286% (0.332%) of the total population.
Selected areas in Colombia- no previous comparative figures:
CARTAGENA
Total cases 20,086
Deaths 515 - 2.6%
Recovered 18,034 - 89.7%
Therefore active cases 1,547 - 7.7%
ANTIOQUIA PROVINCE - of which Medellin is the capital.
Total cases 76,292
Deaths 1,571 - 2.1%
Recovered 55,960 - 73.4%
Therefore active cases 18,761 - 24.6%

NUEVA ZELANDA - New Zealand
Total cases 1,714 (1,602) - up 112 or 7.0%
Deaths 22 - 1.3% (22- 1.4%) - no change
Recovered 1,561 - 91.1% (1,531 - 95.6%) - up 30 or 2.0%
Therefore active cases 131 - 7.6% (49 - 3.0%) up 82 or 167.4%. Of the total population of 5,002,100 (no apparent change!!) the percentage of active cases is 0.0026% (0.001%) of the total population.

AUSTRALIA
Total cases 25,448 (23,035) - up 2,413 or 10.5%
Deaths 583 - 2.3% (370 - 1.7%)- up 213 or 57.6%
Recovered - 20,633 - 81.1% (13,634 - 59.2%) - up 6,999 or 51.3%
Therefore active cases 4,232 - 16.6% (9,022-39.2%) - down 4,790 or 53.1%. Of the total population of 25,545,834 (25,536,945) the percentage of active cases is 0.017% (0.04%) of the total population.

ESTADOS UNIDOS - United States
Total cases  6,067,600 (5,429,115) - up 638,485 or 11.8%  
 Deaths 185,272 - 3.1% (170,781 - 3.2%) - up 14,491 or 8.5%
Recovered 3,352,139 - 55.3% (2,844,525 - 52.4%) - up 507,614  or 17.9%
Therefore active cases 2,530,189 - 41.7% (2,413,829 - 44.6%) - up 116,360 or 4.8%. Of the total population of 331,309,290 (331,235,184) the percentage of active cases is 0.764% (0.729%) of the total population.

And finally some comments - including a few political ones. We can't help ourselves!!!!!!!!!
1) The "world" figures must be estimates as the increase in world population is estimated at 81 million per year - 1,557,692 per week. But the increases in cases must be concerning overall.

2) Colombia - it is pleasing to see that the ratio of "active" cases to total cases is coming down substantially from 39.0% 2 weeks ago to 25.1% last Friday. Also as a percentage of the total population the ratio of "active" cases over the same period  has declined from 0.332% to 0.286%.
However, one must add a rider to these figures. Judging by our observations over the past months, we cannot have much confidence in any figures produced by this inept and hopelessly corrupt government. However, maybe there's a discernible trend - we hope so. Colombia is from the 1st. September coming down from most of the lockdown restrictions which have been in place since mid March - 5 and a half months. There are still personal restrictions such as mask wearing and social distancing, but it's a very welcome development. Let's hope that not too much damage has been done to the economy and that which has been done can be repaired.
We have also supplied figures for the City of Cartagena on the Caribbean Coast and for the province of Antioquia of which Medellin is the capital. Cartagena is a very historic city, having been established by the Spanish in the 1500's. These figures provide an interesting contrast compared with the whole of Colombia.
We must also refer to several massacres which have taken place in Colombia over the past 14 days or so. The military coined the term "collective homicides" because it sounds better than massacres. And Duque has seized on that term to try to induce overall acceptance of disgraceful and murderous acts which have no place in any country which imagines itself to be in any way civilised. We are sure that the vast majority of Colombians are repulsed and horrified by these barbaric acts.  Over 40 victims in mostly remote areas including several 14-15 yr old children. Reports suggest that these children were also tortured before being murdered. Seems that the reasons are mostly political and related to the continuation of massacres which have been gaining ground ever since the Duque Government took power in 2018, and virtually scrapped the UN brokered Peace Agreement with the FARC. The Colombian Government signed the Peace Agreement in 2016, but Duque has since virtually torn it up. The victims are in the main people who are land activists engaged in righting past land injustices.     

3) New Zealand - active cases have increased by 167%, but that's only a number of 82 infections. NZ partially locked down again the biggest city of Auckland, but there are many debates going on as to whether these draconian lockdowns really achieve much, considering the economic destruction that has occurred. NZ has tried the "elimination" method of dealing with the Chinese Virus, but after about 100 days of apparently being free of community transmission and everyone slapping themselves on the back, it has come back and the health people cannot explain it. "Elimination" has failed. It seems to us that NZ, and the whole world, needs to learn to live with this damned virus and develop sensible methods that protect people as much as possible, while at the same time allowing commercial activity, which is vital for rescuing societies from a dead end of poverty.  
We believe that from what we've heard that NZ has inexplicably signed the Belt and Road Initiative with Communist China. Can't get a straight answer out of any of the political parties - why the secrecy??  Why would anyone in their right mind sign anything with a murderous regime like the CCP who deliberately unleashed a deadly virus upon the world which has so far killed as far as we can see, 838,468 people. THAT is a massacre, notwithstanding the economic losses all around the world. CHINA MUST PAY - NOT BE TREATED AS A VALUED TRADING PARTNER. 

4) Australia - the total cases, deaths and recovered figures are all up with the result that active cases are DOWN. The figures would have been much better had it not been for that socialist clown/fool of a Victorian Premier, who couldn't manage a p---up in a brewery!! Melbourne descended into being a basket case, but seems to be turning the corner thank goodness.
The other thing is that this same Premier also signed the Belt and Road Initiative with the Communist Party of China on behalf of the State of Victoria and in secrecy without seeking any approval from the Federal Government. They are amending the relevant legislation to force the cancellation of the agreement as it does not fit with Australian foreign policy. These international agreements should only ever be negotiated and entered into by the Federal Government in Canberra. Australia has far more sense than NZ in these things!!

5) United States - the virus stats do not look great except for the fact that recovered cases are showing an increase of just over half a million or almost 18%. Active cases are up by just over 100,000 in spite of being down by approx. 3% against the latest total cases figure. 
There have been many reports of inaccurate recording of "cases" as a result of their very intensive and extensive testing regime. There was for instance a case of a woman in Florida whose tests did not work for some reason, but then her total "tests" (15!) were added to the national total. How many times has this happened overall? This type of inaccurate recording is probably a major factor with inaccurate reporting of statistics. Again, it is difficult to place total reliance on the figures.
From the 17th. to the 20th. August we endured 4 nights of a lacklustre Democrat National Convention during which all the speakers seemed to be able to do was criticise President Trump with hissy fits of vicious lying and totally dishonest misrepresentation of just about every subject that was commented on. Without mentioning the crooked backgrounds of both the presidential and vice-presidential candidates, all we can say is that with their extreme left wing policies they would destroy America, which in fact seems to be their aim with the Democrat supported Antifa arsonist riots in Portland, Seattle, Chicago, Minneapolis, NewYork, Oshkosh, Milwaukee, Kenosha, Washington D.C., Atlanta, Baltimore, St. Louis and many more. These riots have also resulted in the murder of countless innocent people, including the murder of several children - one shot as she sat in the back seat of her parent's car and another 12 month old shot and killed as he sat in his pushchair. Many others as well. That's the left wing of the Democrat Party for you.
And why is Biden staying holed up in his basement, whereas Trump is out and about meeting and talking to people? Almost certainly the reason is that the Democrats are scared witless that if Biden gets too much, or any, outside exposure, he will fatally damage the Democrat campaign - such as it is! Great candidate for President of the United States!!
But last week the Republican National Convention was a total breath of fresh air. Where the Democrats were negative, the Republicans and Trump were remorselessly positive. The diverse numbers of people who Trump has directly helped told their stories and in many cases absolutely and emotionally from the heart. The cases where his policies have helped various groups were legion and many black leaders, who in most cases would never in the past have thought of voting Republican, now say they will never vote Democrat again. The Democrats have historically relied on the black vote, but that support has largely evaporated.
Nothing is ever absolutely certain in politics, but right now we predict a Trump win by a substantial margin. The Democrat encouraged and organised riots have blown up in the Democrats' faces. And now, having realised their fatal mistake, they are trying to blame Trump for the riots that they fomented, funded and encouraged. The Democrats will NEVER stop their crooked efforts to undermine Trump, because they have no legitimate alternative. 
And Trump will continue his China policies to prevent them from carrying on their policies of larceny of US intellectual property and imbalance of trade to the tune of at least 500 billion dollars per annum. All allowed mainly by the Obama/Biden cartel and earlier by other administrations over the last 30 years or so. Manufacturing is coming back to the USA and also to friendly countries like Colombia who are more than capable of filling the void.

Finally we must mention the outrageous campaign against Hydroxychloroquinne which has been used quite safely as a treatment for Malaria for 70 years. It has been recommended by many doctors who used it in the early stages of the C Virus very successfully as an effective therapeutic drug against the Chinese Virus, provided its use was started in the early stages of the virus's onset. Anyway, we have obtained some here in Medellin, so at least we could use it as a first defence. In spite of the rabid world-wide efforts on the part of the FDA and others to destroy the reputations of those who used it with impressive success in the early stages of the spread of the virus. And this includes banning the 70 year old drug in many countries. Disgraceful - and financially driven.
We could go on and on but all we'll say now is:

TRUMP  2020!!!!
Cheers from the City of Eternal Spring,
Jim and Jean
 








Virus-free. www.avg.com

Friday 21 August 2020

Latest Chinese Virus stats since 14/08 - 7 days ago.

Hi,
These are the latest C Virus stats since our last advice 7 days ago. Can't vouch for the accuracy. Is a guide only.  Old figures in brackets  - 
MUNDO - world
Total cases 22,893,027 (21,168,111) - up 1,724,916 or 8.2%
Deaths 797,690 - 3.5% (759,329 - 3.6%) - up 38,361 or 4.8%
Recovered 15,539,457 - 67.9% (13,984,843 - 66.1%) - up 1,554,614 or 11.1%
Therefore active cases 6,555,880 - 28.6% (6,425,939 - 30.3%) - up 129,941 or 2.0%. Of the total population of 7,806,476,611 (7,804,918,919), the percentage of active cases is 0.084% (0.082%) of the total population. 

COLOMBIA
Total cases 513,719 (433,805) - up 79,914 or 18.4%
Deaths 16,183 - 3.2% (14,145 - 3.3%) - up 2,038 or 14.4%
Recovered 339,124 - 66.0% (250,494 - 57.7%) - up 88,630 or 35.4%
Therefore active cases 158,412 - 30.8% (169,166 - 39.0%) - down 10,754 or 6.4%. Of the total population of 50,956,995 (50,946,629) the percentage of active cases is 0.311% (0.332%) of the total population.

NUEVA ZELANDA - New Zealand
Total cases 1,665 (1,602) - up 63 or 3.9%
Deaths 22 - 1.3% (22 - 1.4%)  - no change
Recovered 1,538 - 92.4% (1,531 - 95.6%) - up 7 or 0.5%
Therefore active cases 105 - 6.3% (49 - 3.0%) - up 56 or 114.3%. Of the total population of (5,002,100) the percentage of active cases is 0.002% (0.001%) of the total population.

 AUSTRALIA
Total cases 24,407 (23,035) - up 1,372 or 6.0%
Deaths 472 - 1.9% (379 - 1.7%) - up 93 or 24.5%
Recovered 18,460 - 75.6% (13,634 - 59.2%) - up 4,826 or 35.4%
Therefore active cases 5,475 - 22.4% (9,022 - 39.2%) - down 3,547 or 39.3%.  Of the total population of 25,540,177 (25,536,945) the percentage of active cases is 0.02% (0.04%) of the total population.

ESTADOS UNIDOS - United States
Total cases 5,747,544 (5,429,115) up 318,429 or 5.9%
Deaths 177,476 - 3.1% (170,761 - 3.2%) - up 6,715 or 3.9%
Recovered 3,096,317 - 53.9% (2,844,525 - 52.4%) - up 251,792 or 8.9%
Therefore active cases 2,473,771 - 43.0% (2,413,829 - 44.6%) - up 59,942 or 2.5%. Of the total population of 331,272,237 (331,235,184) the percentage of active cases is 0.747% (0.729%) of the total population. 

General comments:
1) No results from the UK because they are not publishing deaths or recovered cases stats.
2) Total population figures - world based on an increase of 81 million per week. Other countries estimates only. Some have increased since last week - others haven't changed. So best estimates only.
In view of developing events in China, we might need to revise our comments re the treatment of  China in the light of their commercial behaviour. Much of this has been reprehensible, to say the least, with the deliberate and malign release of the Chinese Virus upon an unsuspecting world, and espionage involving theft of intellectual property over many years. We do not suggest that reparations should not continue to be sought, or Chinese assets seized for these horrible crimes. There is a law firm in Florida, USA which is suing the Chinese government for 6.5 trillion USD. If they win the case and China still doesn't pay, the way is then open for seizure of Chinese assets in the US.
However, right now the whole of the Yangtze River valley is experiencing its 5th. major flood in the last 2 months. This has resulted in such a scale of flooding over the last few weeks that it has seen the destruction of their total grain crop, much of their rice crop and no doubt at least some of their manufacturing capability. In typical Communist Party style, President Xi has instructed the governors of the flood affected provinces to maintain their food production at 2019 levels - failing which they will be dismissed, or worse!! Rice futures are already higher than normal.
The 3 Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River (2.5 kilometres long across the river) is under enormous pressure - very close to its designed safe limit - and at the moment the inflow into the reservoir (75,000 m3 per second) is well above the outflow (48,600 m3 per second) as they try and attempt to minimise the damage downstream. The amount of outflow from the dam is at its largest since it was constructed. The water depth on the upstream side of the dam is approaching 166 metres. But this cannot continue. The dam's apparent limit is 175 metres and the reservoir behind the dam is 410 miles long. God knows what that means in terms of actual physical pressure on the dam wall. And the dam is built in a well-known earthquake zone. There are also persistent reports that the construction of the dam was badly affected by rampant corruption, substandard materials and that the whole structure is not properly bedded into the river bed. It just sits on the bottom of the river on loose rubble.  
If the dam failed (and it has distorted), the resultant massive damage and loss of life could well mean the end of the CCP. 400 million Chinese live downstream from the 3 Gorges Dam.  At some point very soon, to try and save the dam, they will have to increase the outflow again and you don't need to be a rocket scientist to realise the further damage that this will cause downstream. Many cities up and downstream right now are experiencing water levels 6-9 feet above normal. 
So, China's import demand for food should substantially escalate. NZ, Australia, Canada, the US and others could well experience demand well above any current or recent expectations, particularly having regard to China's very recent threatening behaviour re trade agreements. The trade sanctions that they slapped on Australia and the very public warnings issued to NZ will fade into the background as they grapple with the enormous problem of feeding their people.
In addition there are reports that Xi Xingping may be facing a muted (so far) revolt from his military and others in the Politburo who have been growing very disquieted at his military adventurism and generally belligerent behaviour more or less all over the world. If the 3 Gorges Dam fails, it seems likely that it would be the catalyst for the end of Xi's rule, and it could also spell the end of the CCP, if the Chinese people finally revolt. It will depend on whether the Army would support them, but that seems more than a possibility in such circumstances.
All a bit speculative, but there is no doubt that the 3 Gorges Dam is at great risk and could well fail, and of course the crop destruction as above is a fact right now.  
We hope that for the sake of the 400 million people living downstream that does not happen, because it would cause a devastating loss of life and property and would also affect the city of Shanghai. 
The crop failures involve mainly rice and corn and already US exports of corn to China are at record levels. As regards NZ, not sure whether these crop failures would have much impact because dairy is largely imported anyway. But the situation may impinge on their ability to pay for what may be regarded as a luxury food as their economy was already on a slippery slope before there was any news of the C Virus or the floods had started. Dairy and Kiwifruit would not be a priority when confronting national starvation, so NZ's exports could suffer, but for different reasons than China becoming belligerent and punitive over the FTA. Who really knows, but the outlook for NZ's world trade in the short term is not good and urgently needs alternatives, some of which are already either starting to happen (SEAsia), or on the horizon (UK and possibly India).
However, it now appears, and this has been kept under wraps in NZ, that NZ signed the Belt and Road Initiative with Communist China on August 11th. If this is in fact true, and we believe it to be, NZ frankly needs its head examined. NZ is a member of the Five Eyes intelligence network and the other 4 members - the USA, Australia, Canada and the UK - will freeze NZ out of any intelligence sharing and cooperation generally. Could also well impact on NZ's ability to secure a UK trade deal when it will need every friend in the world that it can get and keep. China's economy is on the rocks and who knows how it might ultimately react. Depends on many things - whether the 3 Gorges Dam survives, whether Xi Xingping and/or the CCP survives, how serious is the developing food shortage in China, and the level of desperation (now or never attitude) that may exist or come to exist in the CCP.  
Apart from that, there have recently been very encouraging reports that Colombian officials in Washington have been holding talks with the US as part of the US de-coupling from China. In the last few days a US delegation has arrived in Colombia to discuss the establishment of manufacturing industries in Colombia as they are withdrawn from China. There are already existing pharmaceutical, automotive manufacturing and textile industries here and there are many others that could be started. Colombia geographically is right on the doorstep of North America with 3 ports on the Caribbean coast which are as close to the southern US as Auckland is to Sydney. So, exciting times and a great opportunity for Colombia. Better go and buy that cheap electric drill now while you still can! We've read reports that at Bunnings in Australia there are already shortages of certain power tools.
On that note we'll love you and leave you and hope that everyone is well and coping with the C Virus frustrations.
Jim and Jean
Medellin
Colombia

Friday 14 August 2020

Fwd: Manufacturing being removed from China and relocated to Latin America



---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: James Donald <tiare.taporo3@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2020 at 13:23
Subject: Manufacturing being removed from China and relocated to Latin America
To: Alex Donald <adonald@abdonaldltd.co.nz>
Cc: Amanda Donald <amandadonaldrm@gmail.com>, Charlotte Donald <chillitdonald@yahoo.com>, <Rozanne.Donald@mrgs.school.nz>, Heather Lal <heatherlal53@gmail.com>, David Dunsheath <DavidD@bcpl.co.nz>, Hamish Mead <bluedogstainless@xtra.co.nz>, Linda Luxford <lindaluxford9@gmail.com>, Darren MacGillivray <dmacgillivray71@gmail.com>, Jiveen MacGillivray <jiveen@gmail.com>, Graham <graham@tennisauckland.co.nz>, John Bassili <jajbassili@gmail.com>, lorraine littlefield <lorraine_bun@hotmail.com>, Astrid Meléndez <astridmelendez@une.net.co>, Tracie Hancock <Tracie.Hancock@brightstarcorp.com>, Alan Dodunski <amdodunski@gmail.com>, Clara Restrepo Velez <claramemo@hotmail.com>, Dave Petraska <dave_petraska@hotmail.com>, Jean Tallentire <jean.tallentire@gmail.com>, Monica Correa <monica.m.correa@icloud.com>, <perry.lanaway@gmail.com>, Juan Pablo Gallego <jgallego_7@hotmail.com>, Edgar Agudelo <Edgar.Agudelo@gmail.com>, Angela Patricia Sanchez <apsanchez@alianza.com.co>, elizabeth cooper <elizamarycooper@gmail.com>, Colin Hansen <colin.hansen@ps.gen.nz>, Felipe Gutierrez <felipegutierrez@gutierrezgroup.com.co>, Miguel Homsey <MDH229@aol.com>, Inge Palmer <ingep0227@gmail.com>, Sara Pritchard <sarapritchard18@gmail.com>, <thewrights@xtra.co.nz>


Hi to all,
We have just heard the best news we've heard in a long while. Just hope it's even partially true.
On NTD News today part of their total news coverage mentioned that there have been on-going negotiations in Washington DC between the Colombian Ambassador and others and the US Government regarding the inevitable US de-coupling from China and a firm proposal to establish at least part of that de-coupled manufacturing to Latin America, which is right on the doorstep of N America, We have been going on about this for months now to anyone who would listen, and with any luck the proposal shows promising signs of eventuating.
It is called "Back to the Americas" and Colombia has been selected to play a "pioneering role".
Makes eminent sense given that Colombia already has a manufacturing tradition as well as still having a substantial manufacturing base. Much of that manufacturing in the past involved the textile trade - mainly centred on Medellin. There is still some of that activity left here and we always try to buy "hecho en Colombia" labelled clothes when we can. But it could come back with a vengeance. And a big labour force from Venezuela. Colombia also has 3 ports on its Caribbean coast which are no further from the southern US than Auckland is from Sydney.
Labour costs in particular are cheaper than in the US and, while maybe a little dearer than China still, that will change on a comparative basis as China's population rapidly ages. China has a real demographic problem with its aging population.
It would be a huge boon to the Colombian economy and we just hope that this exciting news  turns into reality.
With best wishes from us in Medellin and let's hope that there is a rapid end to the Chinese Virus unleashed upon the world by Communist China.
Jim and Jean
Medellin
Colombia